2021 should be a year of optimism and rebound as we start the process of emerging from bubbles, getting to see postponed movies, enjoying an Olympic/Expo year and setting high expectations for climate engagement in the UN Climate Conference, Glasgow 2021.
With such optimism will come my 5 V’s for 2021: Vaccines, Volume, Variety, Variability, and Veracity.
Vaccines: the international supply-chain of everything but vaccines will be impacted by airfreight capacity crunches just providing a single dose to 7.8 billion people would fill 8,000 747 cargo aircraft, whilst land and ocean transport mitigate these volumes we will continue into 2021 with significant capacity constraints across the supply-chain exacerbated by impacts of Brexit in Europe and port congestion in China/US as we talk about the next V.
Volume & Variability: 2021 will see volumes return as Morgan Stanley projects strong global GDP growth of 6.4% for 2021—led first by emerging markets, followed by reopening economies in the U.S. and Europe, as volume return will not be linear (organisations need to be cognizant that in certain regions vaccine shortages and new COVID spikes may push back demand) and will favour certain sectors over others, organisations will need to continually monitor and adjust demand and supply plans to chase volumes whilst mitigating continued instability within the ocean freight market.
