Trendwatch: CBP raises accepted tariff refunds to $85B; U.S. denies Iran report on draft peace deal to reopen Hormuz; US, Mexico set three rounds of trade deal talks without Canada

CBP raises accepted tariff refunds to $85B 

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is on track to process around $85 billion in potential and certified refunds for invalidated tariffs through the agency’s dedicated portal, the CBP said in a court filing on Tuesday. 

As of May 22, about $20.6 billion in certified refunds with interest have been completed through Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE, which launched on April 20, the CBP reported. The refunds have been transmitted to the Treasury Department for disbursement. 

U.S. denies Iran report on draft peace deal to reopen Hormuz 

The U.S. denied an Iranian state television report on a draft interim peace deal that said maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal within a month of it coming into effect. 

“This report from Iranian controlled media is not true and the MOU they ‘released’ is a complete fabrication,” the White House said in a social media post on Wednesday. “Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out.” 

Oil had dropped on the Iranian report, with Brent falling almost 4% to below $96 a barrel. It’s declined more than 7% this week as traders become increasingly more optimistic there will be an agreement. 

US, Mexico set three rounds of trade deal talks without Canada 

The Trump administration's trade agency said on Wednesday it will kick off the first of three negotiating rounds with Mexico this week to revamp the North American trade agreement, but made no mention of any talks with Canada. 

The U.S. Trade Representative's office said in a statement that Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Goettman will lead bilateral talks in Mexico City on Thursday and Friday focused on "economic security and rules of origin for key industrial goods." 

USTR said the U.S. and Mexico will hold a second round of negotiations in Washington on June 16-17 focused on agriculture and "a level playing field," with a third set of talks in Mexico City scheduled for the week of July 20. 

Forwarders critical of IATA changes to Direct AWB framework 

Under the changes to the DAWB framework, freight forwarders could become liable for the shipment even when they are acting as a shippers’ agent and are not the named shipper on the air waybill. 

According to Australia’s Freight & Trade Alliance, there are particular concerns that the changes may also transfer responsibility and liability for Dangerous Goods shipments to the freight forwarder, even when operational control, documentation, cargo declarations and packaging information sit with other parties in the supply chain. 

FIATA said that aspects of the current proposed framework may create legal uncertainty and an unintended misalignment between liability, operational control and insurable risk. 

World trade grew strongly at start of year on AI boom 

World trade flows continued to increase at a rapid pace in the first three months of the year, boosted by the boom in artificial intelligence-related investment. 

However, trade in goods may slow in this and coming quarters as the conflict in the Middle East has closed a key transit route, while higher energy prices will likely weaken demand for other products. 

The volume of goods moving across national borders was 3.5% higher in the first three months of the year than it was in the previous quarter, according to figures released Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis—also known as the CPB—which has long tracked world trade as a key influence on the Dutch economy. 

New rail data requirement a ‘win’ for shippers, expert says 

In 2022, a rail crew shortage caused a range of service issues, Gorman said. Shippers demanded the STB for better reporting and now, four years later, the agency has come up with a solution, he added. 

“The rail industry for a long time had problems with on-time performance [and] reliability of service. It’s just a function of the way railroads work, and it’s not necessarily the companies, but the infrastructure they work with,” Gorman, who previously was a director at BNSF Railway, said. 

European companies double down on China manufacturing despite EU de-risking push 

More European companies are maintaining or expanding their supply chains in mainland China to remain competitive globally, according to a survey released Wednesday by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. 

Nearly one-third of respondents said they were onshoring further in China, while 37% said they had not changed their supply chain strategy over the last two years, the report said. 

The survey was based on responses from nearly 300 members collected from January to February who were familiar with their companies’ mainland China supply chain strategies.