Navigating Turbulence: Supply Chain Resilience in the Middle East's Chemical and Petrochemical Industry Amid Geopolitical Unrest

PSA BDP

PSA BDP

Always relevant, geopolitics has seen its impact on global supply chains grow in recent years. This is especially true for the chemical and petrochemical industry in the Middle East.

The Middle East's chemical industry has long played a vital global role thanks to the dependability of the economy, strategic location, and the potential for even greater growth thanks to an emphasis on new investments in infrastructure and production capacity. Countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are focusing large investments on downstream and specialty chemicals capabilities. Notably, Saudi Arabia alone plans to invest more than $367 billion to meet its goal of increasing production by four times by 2035.

Contributing to the positive momentum of the region are key industry players adding capacity by expanding and building new facilities. This growth will be sustained by the region's collective focus on diversification and sustainability, making the Middle East an increasingly vital hub in the global chemical supply chain. There is also plenty of room for growth outside of the region by targeting emerging markets in Asia, such as China and India, where demand for chemicals is rising sharply​.

Challenges to the chemical industry and its supply chain

Even with a solid foundation from which the industry can build, there are unique complexities for global businesses operating in the region. The greatest is that a measure of vulnerability to geopolitical unrest is always present. The ongoing disruption in the Red Sea is a clear example of how the geopolitics of the Middle East can impact local and global supply chains. A mix of different barriers to trade, government sanctions, and the uncertain impact of potential new U.S. tariffs are other issues at play.

A related pressure is sensitivity to energy price volatility, which directly impacts operating costs and profit margins for chemical manufacturers. The companies that will continue to be successful in the region will be those that develop greater supply chain resilience and the ability to manage through all of these challenges.

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Navigating the path forward

Several strategies have already proven successful for the chemical and petrochemical industry in the Middle East to create greater resiliency. These strategies are focused on minimizing the risks associated with supply chain disruptions and improving flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions.

To start with, diversifying supply sources to overcome disruption should be a central strategy in any sourcing operation, especially in the chemical industry. Regionally, companies find benefits by strengthening regional partnerships across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as ways to diversify, drive more innovation, and reduce risk.

Digital supply chain technologies are also making it easier to do business in the Middle East. Whether expanding supply chain partnerships or dealing with normal day-to-day shipping, the emergence of digital technologies is enabling greater flexibility and transparency for companies’ logistics operations.

Digital tools such as PSA BDP’s Smart Navigator increase supply chain transparency with real-time shipment tracking and predictive ETAs – information that is invaluable to keep supply chains operating efficiently.

One looming change to market conditions that could create opportunities for the Middle East is the geopolitics of other regions. The aforementioned U.S. tariffs could have big impacts on the chemical industries in Europe and China and, by extension, the Middle East. Also, the EU’s chemical industry is facing increasing regulations centered on sustainability, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which could impact chemical production and increase demand from the Middle East.

Two already observed impacts of these chemical market shifts include growing demand for Forward Hubbing solutions to create more flexibility and companies maintaining larger buffer stock.

Geopolitics are ever-present

Geopolitics will always influence the Middle East and global supply chains. Yet, while some of the impact is unavoidable, it is also manageable.

Successful chemical supply chains have learned to prioritize risk management and create resilience when facing these challenges. The good news is that the Middle East chemical and petrochemical industry is positioned for even greater growth for companies that successfully leverage technology and partners as tactics to overcome geopolitical complexities.