Trendwatch: Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed as Iran seizes ships after Trump ceasefire extension; Tariff refund system launches as thousands of companies file claims; Six-country international shale priority list for energy security as Middle East conflict drives supply diversification

Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed as Iran seizes ships after Trump ceasefire extension 

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained very light on Wednesday, the first day since President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. 

Trump’s decision to unilaterally extend the truce has not opened the strait. Iran is still trying to control ship traffic in the sea lane, while the U.S. maintains its blockade of Tehran’s ports and vessels. 

At least six ships transited the strait Wednesday including three oil tankers, according to tracking data from LSEG. The Iranian tanker Atlantis II appears to have crossed the strait into the Gulf of Oman despite the U.S. blockade. 

IMO prepares Hormuz evacuation plan for hundreds of ships 

The International Maritime Organization is working on an evacuation plan for hundreds of ships that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began more than seven weeks ago, according to Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez. 

The plan can only be put into action when there are clear signs of de-escalation, Dominguez said on the sidelines of Singapore Maritime Week on April 21. The United Nations agency would also need to ascertain if mines had been laid in the strait before sending ships through, he said. 

“In order for us to do anything at all, we need to make sure that the conflict has come to an end, that there’s no threats of any ships being attacked and that the region is clear from any hazards, including mines,” Dominguez said. 

Tariff refund system launches as thousands of companies file claims 

The refund system set up to allow companies to recover illegally collected tariffs from the U.S. government went live on Monday as thousands of companies rushed to file claims. 

"So far, so good" - though the system is a little glitchy, said ‌Jay Foreman, CEO of toymaker Basic Fun, which had a team in its "war room" at its headquarters in Boca Raton, Florida, ready to start filing when the system went live at 8 a.m. U.S. Eastern time (1300 GMT). 

Foreman said the system didn't crash as some had feared it might under the onslaught of attempted submissions - but rather would sometimes not allow an upload and force them to retry. The company has over 500 files it needs to upload to the system, although the system permits these to be uploaded in batches. 

US trade rep tells Mexican companies Trump tariffs here to stay, sources say 

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has told Mexico's auto and steel industries they should not expect the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to remove President Donald Trump's tariffs on their sectors, four industry sources familiar with the discussions said. 

Greer made the comments on Monday to the industry groups and other top business leaders in meetings in Mexico City to discuss goals for revamping the USMCA with Mexico's president and economy minister as a July 1 deadline for a six-year review approaches. 

"Greer said tariffs are here to stay. President Trump likes them. We will never go back to a zero-tariff world," said one of the four sources, who attended one of the meetings and, like the others, spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. 

Six-country international shale priority list for energy security as Middle East conflict drives supply diversification 

Middle East conflict has elevated strategic energy security priorities as countries seek supply diversification, international shale exploration can play a key role in meeting those goals, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie, titled “A hydrocarbon copy: the upstream industry’s return to international shale exploration”. 

Six countries are advancing unconventional resource development to help address energy security objectives. Algeria leads for European supply diversification, while the UAE, Mexico, Australia, Türkiye, and Indonesia pursue domestic energy strategies through international partnerships and technology deployment. 

Panama Canal says $1 million-plus auction slots reflect temporary surge in demand

The Panama Canal Authority said on Thursday that some ships had recently paid more than $1 million for crossing slots at auction, but said the unusually high prices reflected a temporary rise in demand rather than persistent congestion at the waterway.

The authority said average auction prices had risen to about $385,000 after the start of the Middle East conflict, from around $135,000 to $140,000 before, as higher traffic boosted demand for reservations.

Last week, the authority had downplayed reports that an LPG vessel had paid as much as $4 million in an auction to secure faster passage.

PIL, PSA launch green transhipment service

Pacific International Lines (PIL) and PSA International (PSA), with verification support from DNV, have launched Singapore’s first joint land-sea green value-added service for transhipped cargo at the Port of Singapore, aimed at enabling verifiable Scope 3 emissions reductions across supply chains.
The service reportedly allows shippers and cargo owners to allocate carbon reductions generated through the use of lower-carbon fuels across shipping, port, and landside operations. Pilot trials are scheduled to begin later in May.

The initiative stems from a March 2025 Memorandum of Understanding between PIL, PSA and DNV focused on advancing carbon emissions measurement, reporting and reduction across maritime logistics chains.